Greece

[Shine]

Executive summary: (German) exports are cheaper than they have any right to be because their currency is cheaper than it is has any right to be.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-0 ... klein.html

I think your point is correct. However the other thing is that Germany continues to make things that other people want, and make things well. Greece, on the other hand, is one of my favourite places to visit in the world however other than some olive oil they aren't producing much. The skip on the currency - I am not sure is correct.

[tedster]

apater wrote

their currency is cheaper

??? Don't they use the same Euro as the other countries?

[Shakespeare]

Don't they use the same Euro as the other countries?I

f Germany used the Deutschmark rather than the Euro the DM would rise. So using the Euro helps German exports.

[Shine]

Don't they use the same Euro as the other countries?I

f Germany used the Deutschmark rather than the Euro the DM would rise. So using the Euro helps German exports.

So that is why our hotel is full of Germans smoking cigarettes at breakfast every morning... International finance - amazing isn't it?

[newguy]

Don't they use the same Euro as the other countries?I

f Germany used the Deutschmark rather than the Euro the DM would rise. So using the Euro helps German exports.

So that is why our hotel is full of Germans smoking cigarettes at breakfast every morning... International finance - amazing isn't it?

Whatever they're there for shakes reasoning would mean the opposite. If the euro is undervalued for Germans then it's more expensive to travel out of the zone.

newguy

[ghariton]

For the contrarians, there's a new Greece ETF.

(Warning: Do not try this at home.)

George

[EmperorCoder]

I know, the title seems exagerated. Still, the author makes a very strong argument:

Can Canada go the way of Greece?

Original Globe article :

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-in ... 354/page2/

[newguy]

I know, the title seems exagerated. Still, the author makes a very strong argument:

Can Canada go the way of Greece?

Original Globe article :

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-in ... 354/page2/

Canada has had, and will have again, recessions. One thing that won't happen is the situation where they have to rely on investors to sell bonds. It always help to own the printing machine for your currency.

BTW, as an off and on beach bum, can't wait for the new plastic bills.

newguy

[tedster]

newguy wrote

as an off and on beach bum, can't wait for the new plastic bills.

Just curious, what has one thing to do with the other?

[Nemo2]

newguy wrote

as an off and on beach bum, can't wait for the new plastic bills.

Just curious, what has one thing to do with the other?

Wet money?

[newguy]

newguy wrote

as an off and on beach bum, can't wait for the new plastic bills.

Just curious, what has one thing to do with the other?

I dunno, a new round of money printing -> printing new types of money.

newguy

[tedster]

and being a beach bum means?

[newguy]

and being a beach bum means?

You never went surfing and then tried to buy a beer with soggy bills? Why do you think Aussies were the first to invent plastic money?

newguy

[tedster]

never been surfing. Been scuba diving but left all money except credit cards in my locker. When I went to buy my gin drink, didn't want soggy money. lol. Now I see.

[ghariton]

I dunno, a new round of money printing -> printing new types of money.

And here I thought that the gummint was trying to make money laundering easier.

Are we off topic yet? Not necessarily:

The Greek regime on money laundering tends to be unknown to most foreign experts. This is partly due to the language barrier and partly due to the admittedly minimal bibliography on the regulation of money laundering both within the country and outside it. The limited bibliography is emphasised by a total lack of recorded criminal cases for money laundering brought before the Greek courts. The aim of this article is to present and examine Greek legislation and policy on money laundering. The necessity for a dedicated legislative text, hotly disputed by some legal experts in Greece

Some cultures just do things differently...

George

[ghariton]

e-kathimerini:

President Karolos Papoulias on Thursday offered to help Prime Minister Lucas Papademos ward off a political crisis by convening a session of party leaders if the premier’s talks with them, due to start on Friday, fail to yield a compromise on the policies of the fragile coalition as well as its duration.

Following the collapse of talks on plans to cut auxiliary pensions earlier this week and with mounting speculation about early elections threatening to hamper the progress of reforms demanded by the country’s international creditors, Papademos aims to establish a common position with the leaders of his tripartite coalition.

Nice to see they've gotten their act together.

Every time I think that the crisis in Europe is starting to get better and that I should weight equities more heavily, something like this happens. I think I'll go lie down for a while...

George

[ghariton]

Greek PM's new year message:

The next few months will decide the country’s fate for decades to come, Prime Minister Lucas Papademos told Greeks in his New Year’s message.

“The next three months will be especially crucial,” said Papademos. “The decisions that will be taken will decide Greece’s course for the next decades.”

<snip>

Papademos’s comments came as IMF sources warned that the 50 percent haircut being negotiated by the interim government would not be enough. Sources at the Washington-based fund told Sunday’s Kathimerini that a number of alternatives, including a bigger writedown, are being examined. Other options include a purchase by the European Central Bank of Greek bonds on the secondary market or better terms on eurozone loans for Greece.

On top of this, Papademos’s government must also set out fiscal measures worth an extra 2 billion. It also has to make further cuts to pensions, benefits and public sector staff, as well as completing an overhaul of the country’s taxation system. EU and IMF officials are due in Athens on January 16 for their latest inspection on Greece’s progress.

Meanwhile, from the Governor of the Bank of Greece:

Bank of Greece Governor Giorgos Provopoulos warned that if it returns to the drachma, the country would go through several years of “real hell,” saying it would be like going back to the 1950s.

<snip>

Provopoulos went on to warn that if Greece leaves the euro, its new currency would probably be devalued by 60 to 70 percent and that there would be a period of hyperinflation and high interest rates.

George

[ghariton]

e-kathimerini:

Greece’s economy is heading for a nightmare contraction of 7 percent this year according to the Economist Intelligence Unit, raising fears that the country’s recession is nowhere near bottoming out anytime soon.

While the 2012 budget sees gross domestic product shrinking by 2.8 percent, the EIU forecast places Greece second only to Sudan in the global recession chart: The African country’s economy is expected to contract by 9 percent owing to oil reserve losses after the secession of South Sudan.

Even the most pessimistic projections of the International Monetary Fund had only seen a 3 percent contraction for Greece. And one must bear in mind that this year’s budget was also based on the assumption that the 2011 GDP would have shrunk by 5.5 percent, a figure which is now expected to be much higher.

Moreover, budget revenues at the end of last year were 1.3 billion euros short of the revised target, according to Finance Ministry figures. The extraordinary levies and the special property tax paid via electricity bills helped contain the problem created not just by the lagging revenues but also from excessive expenditure. All this means that the government will need to find ways of securing an extra 2 billion euros this year at least.

Doesn't look good. Even if Greece were to write off all its debt, it still wouldn't have enough revenues to cover its expenses.

George

[dusty2]

It looks good to me, since before their idea of having money was spending borrowed money. Countries can't, like people, spend money that they haven't earned. If they all go broke, that's the way it is, then they start from that point. It shows how low the left-wing and unions will go when they reduce their country to poverty so that they can practice their lazy way of life. It's a good example for Canada to keep the unions and NDP out of power.

[Wallace]

The world has been obsessing over Greece for well over a year now. The sluggish market in the second half of 2011 was mostly due to the uncertainties in Europe. In the meantime, company profits in Canada have been going up and The American economy seems to be getting a second wind. As always, the Americans can never be counted out.

I wonder if Greece is becoming irrelevant. The Europeans are talking 50% haircuts of more for Greek bondholders and Greece is still considering leaving the EU, yet stock markets the world over seem to be slowly climbing back up the "Wall of Worry" from their 2011 depths.

Perhaps a Greek disaster is already priced in. We'll see....

[AltaRed]

We may be seeing early year market euphoria, i.e. markets are optimistic early, but then 'sell in May and go away' sets in.

[ghariton]

Bloomberg:

Greek Leaders Agree on a Rescue Framework

Financial Times:

Greece takes step closer to default

E-kathimerini:

PM’s talks with leaders spill over deadline

Papademos reports progress on 'key issues' but hurdles remain on thorny wage question

Darts, anyone?

George

[adrian2]

Citigroup sees rising threat of Grexit (Greece euro exit)

Citigroup analysts are warning of the rising threat of Greece leaving the euro zone, so much so that they've dubbed it Grexit. It doesn't flow quite as well as Merkozy, but it gets the point across.

[Shakespeare]

The discussions won't end until somebody walks. At that point, the non-Greek markets will likely go up in relief.

[ghariton]

Doesn't look good:

Eurozone finance ministers dismissed as incomplete a reputed €3.3bn package of Greek budget cuts presented to them in the hope of securing a new €130bn bail-out and sent the country’s finance minister back to Athens with a fresh set of demands and an urgent deadline.

<snip>

Athens said on Thursday that industrial output fell 11.3 per cent in December from a year ago and unemployment rose in November to an all-time high of 20.9 per cent.

George