Copper

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Copper

Postby newguy » 08 Dec 2011 14:34

Why doesn't the only commodity with a supposed Phd have it's own thread?

Fortress commodities view
Despite substantial disruptions in the global supply in copper, we feel that rising inventories in China – in the face of declining demand – do not suggest that the metal should trade 25% – 35% above marginal cost. We believe that downside risk remains.


Goldman Sachs is maintaining their bullish position on gold and copper.
Their copper position is based on continuing supply problems and a relatively bullish outlook for emerging markets (via Goldman Sachs):


The most interesting quote from the first thread was about something else.
From 1990 to 2000, there were 29 days on which at least 400 of the 500 S&P constituents had the same directional move. Since July of this year, there have been 34 such days. This is clearly a new regime of volatility for market participants.

Pretty crazy.

In case all y'all haven't been following the copper story here's a link with some more links to follow.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/04 ... er-stocks/

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Re: Copper

Postby Shine » 09 Dec 2011 00:57

Perhaps CU is too smart? :beer:
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Re: Copper

Postby newguy » 26 Apr 2012 11:32

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/04 ... in-copper/

The same funding using copper as collateral appear to be taking place in London as well as China. I have a feeling that end use is nowhere near as high as people think and this will be a huge crash one day. I think a few long term OTM TCK puts will turn out to be a good investment or hedge against China anyway. The met coal situation is probably similar, don't forget China used to be an exporter.

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