Royal Bank (Symbol-RY)

[mpav]

mpav....if I se ANY dividend increases in the next 6 - 12 months, I'll eat my hat.

PWF increased today...you can start chomping on your hat....

[biker]

TD Waterhouse would like to inform you that the following New
Issue has just been announced.

Royal Bank of Canada

Short Description: Treasury Offering of Common Shares via Bought Deal
Price: $35.25 CDN per share.
Settlement: December 22, 2008.

BTW RY closed today at $37.50

[adrian2]

The new issue is closed at TDW, but don't despair, RY trades at $35.48 as I'm writing.

[iluvnascar]

Looks like it was EXTREMELY well received. I got only 70% of the request. It ought to be good for a pop real soon (and a dividend in january)

[Shifty]

Tried to get in on the issue, but missed out. Picked some up at $35.40, though, so pretty happy with that.

[FranksFinancials]

I put a bid in @ $35.50

[biker]

Bought at $34.75 mid afternoon.

[bubbalouie]

Another 64 equity financings and they'll have their derivatives paid off. Anyone notice how the derivatives on the asset side went from $66 billion to $136 billion? (The shareholder equity is only $30 billion).

BTW, if this company were so healthy, they would've passed the 3/4 point prime rate cut on to us today. That's twice now they've screwed the people feeding them. This is another red flag.

[bubbalouie]

52 week low today. $32.17.
Ready for the next leg down. Should find temporary support at $30.00. I base this on the support level found in 2004.

[Michael D]

52 week low today. $32.17.
Ready for the next leg down. Should find temporary support at $30.00. I base this on the support level found in 2004.

And S&P just published a "Buy" rating on this one. Looking at the report, I am not sure if they have read the balance sheet. They've mixed up the currency translation on a few key figures too. Sloppy, maybe only interns left working Wall St/

(edit): With payout ratio of 50%, they would have to drop the dividend if EPS comes in at around $3.20-3.60 for the FY; or increase payout.

[Locke]

Not a fan of the S&P reports, they seem to be lagging indicators from what I've seen.

Regardless, banks continue to be challenged in this market though not as bad the UK banks.

Not sure if I want to put in a LO for 30.

[bubbalouie]

ex-dividend today; $.50 dividend vs. $1.50 share price loss; wtg

[bubbalouie]

$28.08 today. I wish I could get excited about RY but I have a feeling something bad is just around the corner. The stock has shed 12.5% on very heavy volume the last 2 days.

[Steve19]

Why does their stock price keep falling? I understand no one can really answer this question, but throw me some ideas. Emotions aside, dropping 10+ % in the past few days makes me wonder what is going on, especially when there is no new significant news creating fear, or is it?

[Peculiar_Investor]

$28.08 today. I wish I could get excited about RY but I have a feeling something bad is just around the corner. The stock has shed 12.5% on very heavy volume the last 2 days.

I don't normally follow RY, but I did notice this article today, Another reason to worry about Royal Bank. From the article, apparently the issue is some financial engineering product known as "stable value products". I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to go through the article and make their own investing determination.

[iluvnascar]

I have no idea how low RY will go.

Butremember when everyone was buying Bankamerica and Citibank at huge multiples of their current price.....because they were of course, well-capitalized and diversified.

And look at them now....essentially Govt owned enterprises deemed too big to fail.

Royal could be the same....nobody knows.

I bought some of their new issue a few weeks back - as many said, the worst is over and RY is the biggest and best Canadian bank. But i was nervous and so I sold some February $30 calls when RY was around $34+

I thought (incorrectly) that even if RY fell another 10% (impossible, of course), I'd still be in the black.

But as RY fell recently, I decided enough is enough.....I bought back the calls and sold the shares for an overall return close to breakeven.

And I'm not going near another bank for some time to come. They could all be holding junk and not knowing it....or not disclosing it. Just look at the piles of capital that RY has raised recently.

[bubbalouie]

Why does their stock price keep falling?

I believe the answer is in RY's derivatives. Even a 10% impairment of these assets will wipe out close to 50% of everything the company has built the last 75 years.

Now you've got these "stable value products" as peculiarinvestor pointed out, some of which wil have to be written down.

It's too bad we, the average investors aren't privy to how much U.S. assets are on the RY balance sheet. One could then write down these assets to zero (assuming the dollar collapse) and then figure out what the company is worth.
My assumption is it'll be worth a lot less than the $30 billion Nixon says they have in shareholder equity.

[Tanstaafl]

52 week low today. $32.17.
Ready for the next leg down. Should find temporary support at $30.00. I base this on the support level found in 2004.

Pretty temporary

[Wallace]

Just did the last - I'm determined it will be the last - capital loss crystallization of this downturn. (Royal Bank, what else )

Now I just have to decide what to replace it with.

[Pickles]

Well I bought some just before the ex div date at $30.90 and I'm pissed. my goal was to average down the price of existing shares (bought at $59!!!!) and then sell off the recently bought shares. Still stickin' to the strategy, though. Let's see what thirty days brings....

[Mike Schimek]

Bought more ravioli today, didn't have to cost average or anything.

Waiting for the inevitable price jump. I'm counting on a 10-15% annual appreciation rate.

[2 yen]

Mike......you're joking, of course. (?) About the 10 - 15% thing.

[deaddog]

Bought more ravioli today, didn't have to cost average or anything.

Waiting for the inevitable price jump. I'm counting on a 10-15% annual appreciation rate.

You looking for a move back to 33 for your 10% or are you expecting a 10 to 15% longer term return including the dividend?

Is this a trade or an investment?

[Locke]

Bought more ravioli today, didn't have to cost average or anything.

Waiting for the inevitable price jump. I'm counting on a 10-15% annual appreciation rate.

You looking for a move back to 33 for your 10% or are you expecting a 10 to 15% longer term return including the dividend?

Is this a trade or an investment?

Sounds like a long term investment from Mike if he's quoting annual appreciation.

I'd be pretty damn happy with that type of annual if it was that regular though I'm sure most would expect more of an early spike then slower CG/DIV return.

I'm just wondering when we can expect for RY and the likes to starting increasing div's which seems like years off down the road

[Michael D]

I'm just wondering when we can expect for RY and the likes to starting increasing div's which seems like years off down the road

The price will have to push the yield down below 5% before you see increases. In the meantime, +7% (market will price any dividend reduction accordingly) isn't that bad.