The Daytrading & Swingtrading Thread

[deaddog]

Update;

SFD hit stop on Mar 28. Sold @ 21.94.

[deaddog]

Buy BWA @ 84.16

I missed the breakout above 82.30 several weeks ago and have been waiting for a pullback to that level. The stock seems to be making higher lows, so took a shot this morning.

Earnings will be on Apr 26, plan to be out before announcement.

Stop @ 82.25 Initial target @ 94
% of capital at risk = 0.5%

[deaddog]

NUS Buy @ 56.24


3-5 Bar reversal: Stock is in an up trend; Price makes new high then reverses making lower highs and lower lows for 3 or more Bars. Entry when stock moves above the prior bars high; stop at prior bars low; trail stop at prior bars low.

.

Stop @ 54.50 Initial target @ 62
% of capital at risk = 0.66%

[deaddog]

BWA sold @ 81.70 for a 2.9% loss.

That will teach me to sleep in. Should have been out @ 82.50.
If I’m not going to be watching the market I should have hard stops in place.

[Pickles]

BWA sold @ 81.70 for a 2.9% loss.

That will teach me to sleep in. Should have been out @ 82.50.
If I’m not going to be watching the market I should have hard stops in place.

I don't understand your system. Wasn't this the pullback you were waiting for? Who cares if it came a few days later than your prediction? Why didn't you just wait awhile to see if it went up again? After all, you had already paid more than you wanted; surely, in the absence of bad news, a drop in price would be a buying opportunity, a chance to reduce your acb to your original target price.

[adrian2]

I don't understand your system. Wasn't this the pullback you were waiting for? Who cares if it came a few days later than your prediction? Why didn't you just wait awhile to see if it went up again? After all, you had already paid more than you wanted; surely, in the absence of bad news, a drop in price would be a buying opportunity, a chance to reduce your acb to your original target price.

Pickles, your mindset is wired similarly to mine. Deaddog thinks differently, that's why he uses stop loss orders, which have been described in a not too nice way by James Hymas.

To use an appropriate quote, brought to my attentions by one of the forum participants "In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is!"

[deaddog]

I don't understand your system. Wasn't this the pullback you were waiting for? Who cares if it came a few days later than your prediction? Why didn't you just wait awhile to see if it went up again? After all, you had already paid more than you wanted; surely, in the absence of bad news, a drop in price would be a buying opportunity, a chance to reduce your acb to your original target price.

The short answer is that I expected BWA to continue to advance from where I bought it. I was wrong. I have no idea where it will go from here. I bet a certain amount that it would go up and lost the bet.

My number 1 priority when investing is to protect my capital. Without capital I’m limited to what I can do. I try and buy stocks that go up. I don’t diversify so I have to have a method of controlling my risk. I have no control over where a stock goes. I do have control over whether I own it or not. If a stock drops after I buy it then it’s not acting like I expected it to. To hold it and hope means I turn control of my capital to the market.

Where do you draw the line on when to get rid of a stock? If I continue to hold and hope, and the stock continues to fall, how long do I tie up my capital? I have no idea what forces moved the stock. Just because there is no news today doesn’t mean that someone somewhere isn’t acting on info that will soon become public. I don’t trust the market.

I was expecting a pullback on BWA. However it has now pulled back farther than expected and if I had waited I would probably have passed on the opportunity.

I look at it as one trade out of many. My strategy results in many small losses and I easily accept that I won’t win every trade. It’s the big losses that hurt you, and most big losses start as a small loss.

[deaddog]

To use an appropriate quote, brought to my attentions by one of the forum participants "In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is!"

My feeling exactly;

[deaddog]

And another one bites the dust
KSWS sold @ 3.74

[adrian2]

And another one bites the dust
KSWS sold @ 3.74

Could not help noticing that KSWS now trades at $3.90
Are you keeping track of stocks after you close the position?
How many times did a stop loss prevent a, say, 30% loss vs. not being able to hold on to a stock which went up after a short hiccup and you could have taken a gain of, say 5% a week later?

As you may know by now, I'm very obstinate in not admitting I'm wrong and not taking a (small) loss, in the hope of avoiding a larger one. I'm aware that some may criticize my system, but I'm happy with it.

[deaddog]

Could not help noticing that KSWS now trades at $3.90
Are you keeping track of stocks after you close the position?
How many times did a stop loss prevent a, say, 30% loss vs. not being able to hold on to a stock which went up after a short hiccup and you could have taken a gain of, say 5% a week later?

As you may know by now, I'm very obstinate in not admitting I'm wrong and not taking a (small) loss, in the hope of avoiding a larger one. I'm aware that some may criticize my system, but I'm happy with it.

BWA isn't doing much for my self esteem either.

I try not to look back at every trade and second-guess my decisions. If I give a position a little more room then where do I draw the line if it keeps going against me?

For this year I have closed 17 trades, 11 of them at a loss or break even.
The first trade of the year (SCSS) was the worst one to look back on. I took it of at break even, didn’t even give it a chance to be a loser and it never traded lower than my sell price and has advanced ever since. It’s up 47%. I’ll rationalize that I would have jumped out with a 20% gain and still have had sellers remorse.

However SPII was sold for a 3% loss and is now down about 35%
Other than those 2 there is nothing that stands out as having an extreme move after I sold. .

As much as you hate to be wrong I still maintain it is near impossible to be right all the time. By not dealing with your losers, all you accomplish is to tie up you capital.
So far this year my strategy has not performed very well, but I still have all the money I started with. .

[adrian2]

I guess my question is, if your initial target was, say, take a stop loss at $x and take a profit at $3x, what's the success percentage? If you're having twice as many losses triggered than profits taken, you're ahead; if it's 4 times as many, you're behind.

Just curious which side of Yogi Berra the dice fall.

[deaddog]

I guess my question is, if your initial target was, say, take a stop loss at $x and take a profit at $3x, what's the success percentage? If you're having twice as many losses triggered than profits taken, you're ahead; if it's 4 times as many, you're behind.

Just curious which side of Yogi Berra the dice fall.

Actual numbers so far year to date are as follows:

Number to trades closed 17
Winners 6 = 35%
Losers 8 = 47%
Break even 3 = 18%

Actual risk /reward = 1 / 1.48

I don’t really expect to bring the winning percentage up but I hope to increase the risk / reward ratio. If I can get it to 1 to 3 life will be good.

[deaddog]

ZUMZ @ 35.90

Reversal play: Today the price traded above the high volume down day (Apr 10).

Stop will be triggered if price closes below today’s low.

Initial Target = 40.00 Capital at risk = 0.5%

[optionable68]

As you may know by now, I'm very obstinate in not admitting I'm wrong and not taking a (small) loss, in the hope of avoiding a larger one. I'm aware that some may criticize my system, but I'm happy with it.

You don't say?

[deaddog]

And another one bites the dust
KSWS sold @ 3.74

Could not help noticing that KSWS now trades at $3.90
Are you keeping track of stocks after you close the position?

Today I don't feel quite so bad.

[deaddog]

Buy ZAGG@ 11.45
Stop = a close below 10.50 will trigger a stop.
Initial Target = 15
Risk = 0.8% of capital

This is a breakout play. Earnings are on May 3rd so I have to decide if I’ll hold thru earnings.

[deaddog]

Sold NUS @ 56.47
Basically a break even trade.

Looks like I managed to get out at the bottom.

[deaddog]

Buy STX @ 29.13
Pull back type of play. STX broke out of a base last week and today pulled back to the break out point. Price action looks like it wants to go up. As I write this it has a nice hammer formation.
Stop is below the days low
Initial target is 33
Capital at risk = 0.72%

[deaddog]

Closed out 3 positions in April. None of them profitable; However none of them ate a big hole in my account.

Gain for the year is only 0.4%; not that happy with the results but my number one objective is to preserve capital. That was accomplished. Now if I can just make a little progress on objective number two; which is to beat my dividend portfolio.



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[deaddog]

ZAGG

Sold @ 12.84 for a gain of 12.1%


Reason for sale: ZAGG earnings are due after the bell today.

[deaddog]

Start a position in SFX@ 46.06

Will pick up a little more on a pullback
Stop = close below todays low
Target = 48
Will update at the end of day.

Also have moved stops up on all open positions.
MOLX From 26.50 to 27
ZUMZ From 34 to 36
EL From 59 to 63
STX From 27.70 to 30

Most these positions have been held for some time so I'm lightening up on my risk.
Except for MOLX all positions will show a little profit.

[deaddog]

MOLX Sold @ 27.04
STX Sold @ 31

[deaddog]

Market gapped down this morning; Stops were executed below where I had set them. That is one of the risks when you place hard stops.

EL sold @ 62.30 small gain of 2.6%
EFX sold @ 45.96 loss of 0.2%

[deaddog]

ZUMZ @ 35.90

Reversal play: Today the price traded above the high volume down day (Apr 10).

Stop will be triggered if price closes below today’s low.

Initial Target = 40.00 Capital at risk = 0.5%

ZUMZ sold @ 37.02 (+3%)

All cash at this point. I'll see what the market wants to do.