How should one measure inflation and what causes it?
At first blush this seems trivial. Not so. Read
Inflation by David Ranson
- with a bit from it
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Still more difficult than measuring inflation is the problem of identifying its root causes. In spite of its long and rich history, few subjects in the field of economics are more confused. Professional economists have still not reached broad agreement as to the origins of the inflation process. Two camps dominate the debate. Some see inflation as a malady of the currency (as was surely the case in the Roman Empire). In the words of Milton Friedman, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary problem." Others see nonmonetary forces at work, such as monopolies, union demands for higher wages, oil politics, or the "wage-price spiral."
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Among those who attribute inflation to monetary causes, at least two quite different views exist. The monetarist view is that increases in the quantity of money cause inflation. Critics of this view point out that the quantity of money is difficult to define, especially when funds can be transferred electronically and credit cards can substitute for cash balances. It can also be argued that people have freedom to choose the quantity of money they want to hold rather than merely accept the quantity the government wishes to impose upon them.
The other monetary view, held historically by opponents of fiat (i.e., government) paper money, and by advocates today of restoring the gold standard, is that the quantity of money can take care of itself. What really is needed, according to this view, is a mechanism for keeping the price of the currency stable, for providing an anchor, so to speak.
Governments have been slow to accept the recommendations of either of these camps. That probably is because either a strict monetary rule or strict adherence to a gold standard or other price rule would place strict limits on discretionary government management of the economy.