Buffett Buffet

[WynnQuon]

If Buffet is not that old, BRK.B would be all that I hold in my US portfolio. Does his age turn off anyone other than me?

His age is definitely an issue. I'm sceptical they'd be able to find a genuine replacement for him (and Munger).

The other argument against Brk is just its huge size...its hard to do well on such a big portfolio.

[augustabound]

If Buffet is not that old, BRK.B would be all that I hold in my US portfolio. Does his age turn off anyone other than me?

I used to think he and Munger set up Berkshire to succeed long after they were gone with a Berkshire culture so to speak that someone could come in and continue. After the deals that were made the last couple of weeks, and including the Marmon and Wrigley deals earlier this year, I don't know if anyone else would have done them. They both made Berkshire what it is today and I'm now skeptical of it's future without either one of them.

[scomac]

"Like the Goldman deal, he gets terms and conditions that no one else can demand. They certainly aren't available to retail in any way shape or form. "

Although sometimes you can -- when Mr Market is depressed enough, he can offer prices that are lower than even Buffett's.

Only if the securities already exist. You probably could "copy" the Goldman deal using existing preferreds and long dated calls purchased at the right price (I don't see any existance of warrants), but the window would have been very small. For GE however, that doesn't appear to be an option.

[WynnQuon]

"Like the Goldman deal, he gets terms and conditions that no one else can demand. They certainly aren't available to retail in any way shape or form. "

Although sometimes you can -- when Mr Market is depressed enough, he can offer prices that are lower than even Buffett's.

Only if the securities already exist. You probably could "copy" the Goldman deal using existing preferreds and long dated calls purchased at the right price (I don't see any existance of warrants), but the window would have been very small. For GE however, that doesn't appear to be an option.

Yes, you're right on GE. That door's got Warren's name on it and no one else's.

I was thinking of some of his other holdings though. USBancorp for example, which in late summer was down to $20 while Buffett had bought in at north of $30.

[scomac]

Yes, you're right on GE. That door's got Warren's name on it and no one else's.

I was thinking of some of his other holdings though. USBancorp for example, which in late summer was down to $20 while Buffett had bought in at north of $30.

He's getting more demanding, or more to the point, these latest investments are considerably more risky than the USB investment at the time it was made. As I said either upthread here or on another thread, there is no incentive to buy equity. There's just too much risk with many of these companies. What he has done is purchased a convertible perpetual bond. It offers a distinct measure of additional security, pays you to wait and offers all the upside of common share ownership. It makes far more sense to me than a direct investment in common equity at this juncture.

[brucecohen]

From NPR:
Warren, his ukulele and his son

[Bylo Selhi]

So Warren replaces Nero, the ukulele replaces the fiddle and the US replaces Rome as the empire that's in flames?

[Small Investor Activist]

Buffett stands to benefit more than any other investor from the bailout.

[WynnQuon]

From NPR:
Warren, his ukulele and his son

Aha, so that's his secret! It's not about value investing after all...

[jjk2]

what is K's and Q's that he is referring to in the article ?

[Peculiar_Investor]

what is K's and Q's that he is referring to in the article ?

I didn't listen to the story, but I would assume that K's and Q's are 10-K http://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-k.asp and 10-Q http://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10q.asp, which are annual and quarterly forms submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

[Goofyboy]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... LTczGz6bl8

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett's instant paper profits on Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and General Electric Co. have been wiped out amid the stock market's worst yearly slump since 1937.

[kcowan]

I don't think WB was in it for instant profits. All this shows is that even WB could not anticipate the crazy market swings. If he could he would have waited. He thought the bailout deal being passed would turn the market. Surprise Warren this is bigger than even you and your staff.

[sweedy]

I don't think WB was in it for instant profits. All this shows is that even WB could not anticipate the crazy market swings. If he could he would have waited. He thought the bailout deal being passed would turn the market. Surprise Warren this is bigger than even you and your staff.

Maybe WB's hedge fund friends think they are doing revenge on him for his earlier remarks about hedge fund performance.

[WynnQuon]

If I was Warren I would threaten to play my ukelele. That would teach 'em.

[jjk2]

curious, WB averaged around 20% return annualy for the past 40 years right ?

how big do you think are these returns from his previous holdings? maybe some of his old picks are growing so much that his bad picks are offset.

[kcowan]

I think it is tough to find fault. His latest plays did misread the market pessimism but I am with him on that one and shaking my head about the market meltdown since he made his two plays.

I am excited about the garage sale going on. I may not benefit but my kids will benefit in a much larger way than I ever imagined.

[bubbalouie]

I read an article in the last day or two (which I can no longer find) about how Warren actually made $8.8 billion from Sept 1 - Oct 1, while the likes of Bill Gates and Larry Ellison lost over $1 billion each.

I see that for the 1st 10 days of October, Berkshire Hathaway stock has fallen 14%.

Which makes me think: with the media being so slanted, will we ever see an article with the title
"World's Smartest Investor loses $8.67 billion in 10 days"?

[cycle]

From NPR:
Warren, his ukulele and his son

Warren may be good but he's got nothing on the KazooKeylele.

[cashinstinct]

Open letter from Buffett: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opini ... ref=slogin

His message: he buys US stocks in this personal portfolio.

[blackball]

Open letter from Buffett: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opini ... ref=slogin

His message: he buys US stocks in this personal portfolio.

He is trying to manipulate the market.

[Mike Schimek]

He is trying to manipulate the market.

IMO I think he's doing exactly what he says he's doing. The concept is nothing new, it's in Benjamin Graham's book as well.

I guess b/c I hold WB in such high esteem, I find it "distasteful" that someone would accuse WB of things like "trying to manipulate the market".

I'm 100% equities, zero cash. Have been busting my ass to raise funds to mitigate forced margin selling during the current insanity.

I've never seen such amazing deals in the stock market as those that exist today, and doubt I ever will again for a long, long time.

Get ready for the mother of all rallies.

[George$]

... Get ready for the mother of all rallies.

I hope you are right but I fear there is more to it than the market. Eventually you will probably be correct but it may be a long wait.

According to Kevin Phillips there are six other sharks in tank and we are not even half way into the abyss.

I recommend folks listen carefully to the video of Kevin Phillips on April 28, 2008 speaking about his book “Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism” at http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... 5640961960

An early, engaging and compelling perspective of the US crisis. I've ordered his "Bad Money".

[EmperorCoder]

Warren Buffett has been moving his personal investments from safe Treasuries into U.S. stocks, he wrote in an opinion piece in Friday's New York Times.

"If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities," he wrote.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/10/ ... 69698.html

"...if you wait for the robins, spring will be over."

[WynnQuon]

Warren Buffett has been moving his personal investments from safe Treasuries into U.S. stocks, he wrote in an opinion piece in Friday's New York Times.

"If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities," he wrote.

"...if you wait for the robins, spring will be over."

On the other hand, if you're expecting spring when it's still fall, you can get mighty cold.

In the original NYTimes editorial, he cites the example of the Great Depression when stocks hit their bottom in 1932 and it was the time to buy. His argument is to buy when everyone is fearful. But this isn't really useful because people were fearful all the way down during 1929-1932. If you followed this advice during the GD, you would have been hosed.

If you bought in Dec 1929 during the first major rally you were in for a further 81% decline. If you bought in Jan 1930 on the second major rally, you were in for the same. If you ventured forth to find spring in Dec 1930, you'd be rewarded with a 75% decline. In the June 1931 rally you be treated to a 71% haircut. In the Sep 1931 rally, a 61% fall. And then in the January 1932 rally, six months from the final bottom, you'd *only* be knocked down a further 50%.

Trust in Warren Buffet but keep your powder dry.