What if ... it is different this time?

[agape]

Greed is a natural law within the individual. I doubt that can be denied.

On a level of society, however, greed is actually a relative issue, is it not ?
eg: I have more than you and you have more then her.

Because of relativity , greed can be illustrated by a shape and that shape can be engineered, so that there is no relative greed factor. What's better, is it can be reshaped in the market and it can be done from the bottom-up. Obama is eluding to this in his campaign.

Does this remove greed from within the individual ? I'm not sure but I can let you know when we arrive. What I do know is that the shape of things is changing as we work to wean out the structural greed factor and balance the power equation between supply and demand.

Infrastructure plays a huge part. How does one raise functional children in a disfunctional household ??? It might be best to get them to a new dwelling first.

[mudLark]

Greed is a natural law within the individual. I doubt that can be denied.

A nod to the wise

...reasoning with blonde is like herding feral cats.

blonde has developed a very special and personal economic theory that has something to do with constant percentages, variable rules and the tossing of a double-headed coin -- heads you're a wannabee, tails you're not!

[kcowan]

... heads you're a wannabee, tails you're not!

blonde is just scamming us all. No centre there just a bunch of baffelgab.

[Dividend Growth Investor]

Here's a summary showing that mutual fund timers underperformed the market over the past 20 years:

http://disciplinedinvesting.blogspot.co ... ngers.html

And here's some raw data from S&P 500 showing dividend data ( last tab)

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xl ... CHANGE.xls

Currently S&P 500 is around 1035 now while the indicated dividend for the index in 2008 is 28.85

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xl ... payers.xls

Dividends are important component of the total returns as they provide 40% on average of annual returns. If you count re-investment they do account for an even larger amounts.

Anyways, any time someone tells me that this time it is different I tend to ignore them. Why? Because history shows that any time anyone thinks this time it is different they are wrong.. and those who do not learn from history. Tend to repeat it..

[mpav]

Also, if it truly is different the only solution is run far, far away (like many of the people that now live in North America did).

If there is a collapse, in truth the last thing you worry about are your investments (they are usually devalued past the point of no return), as your job, having a home, supporting your family all become number one.

If the economy does collapse and we are in a huge funk we will never recover from, you have to move to a growth part of the world...thats the only solution.

So if you think the world is anything outside of that dire scenario, you will need to be in equity markets to grow your wealth, interest bearing investments to preserve it.

[Dividend Growth Investor]

Also, if it truly is different the only solution is run far, far away (like many of the people that now live in North America did).

If there is a collapse, in truth the last thing you worry about are your investments (they are usually devalued past the point of no return), as your job, having a home, supporting your family all become number one.

If the economy does collapse and we are in a huge funk we will never recover from, you have to move to a growth part of the world...thats the only solution.

So if you think the world is anything outside of that dire scenario, you will need to be in equity markets to grow your wealth, interest bearing investments to preserve it.

Mpav I second you on this one.

When communism reigned in Russia in 1918 all investors were wiped out both financially and physically. I think that most investors would have wished they were wiped out only financially..

[blackball]

Also, if it truly is different the only solution is run far, far away (like many of the people that now live in North America did).

Like Jim Rogers

[desk4811]

The strange thing about what has happened so far is that the U.S. dollar has strengthened, when it seems it should decline. Having 3 or 4 major banks collapse in the U.S. isn't a positive sign. If capitalism is like a sport, the U.S. is getting beaten. Eventually it will have to create some equilibrium in it's trading. Oil going down in price is interesting also.

[Dividend Growth Investor]

The strange thing about what has happened so far is that the U.S. dollar has strengthened, when it seems it should decline. Having 3 or 4 major banks collapse in the U.S. isn't a positive sign. If capitalism is like a sport, the U.S. is getting beaten. Eventually it will have to create some equilibrium in it's trading. Oil going down in price is interesting also.

Desk,

Normally when we have a global economic crisis, the US dollar is viewed as asave heaven than the rest of the currencies. You think that the US got it bad. But remember that Europe already has a much higher unemployment than what US is projected to have in the near future.. In addition to that other countries like the eurozone didn't start cutting rates for quite a while, as they were concerned about inflation..

[BRIAN5000]

http://ifa.com/Worried_about_your_Inves ... video=mbc4

Weston Wellington's "Is it different this time"

May be worth a listen. You can listen to first video that pops up or X out of it and listen to Weston's

Like to get a print out of this so I can read it every time the market crash's.

[Bylo Selhi]

Weston Wellington's "Is it different this time"

Taleb and Mandelbrot to Westie, "Yes, it may well be. Be afraid. Be very afraid."

Top Theorists Examine Rippling Economic Turbulence [NPR, 21Oct08]

As the financial sector shifts, so does the reach of the jolt to economic structures around the world. Economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb and his mentor, mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot, speak with Paul Solman about chain reactions and predicting the financial crisis...

Taleb: The banking system, the way we have it, is a monstrous giant built on feet of clay. And if that topples, we're gone. Never in the history of the world have we faced so much complexity combined with so much incompetence and understanding of its properties...

Taleb: Now you understand why I'm worried. I hope I'm wrong. I wake up every morning -- actually, I don't wake up every morning now. I start to wake up at night the last couple of weeks hoping that I'm wrong, begging to be wrong. I think that we may be experiencing something that is vastly worse than we think it is...

[Nemo2]

Roubini

1st & 3rd videos.

[mudLark]

The whole intellectual edifice, however, collapsed in the summer of last year because the data inputted into the risk management models generally covered only the past two decades, a period of euphoria. Had instead the models been fitted more appropriately to historic periods of stress, capital requirements would have been much higher and the financial world would be in far better shape today, in my judgment.

Doubtless other models also account inadequately for the euphoria of recent history.

[Clock Watcher]

IMO the only investment advisors worth listening to are those that correctly anticipated this and got their clients out of stocks, and are flexible enough that they are not perma-bulls or perma-bears. Other advisors have not added any value.

It comes back to how I do performance appraisals at work - have you further my projects? If my 10-year return in stocks is negative, then the advisor clearly has not further MY project. I won't accept the argument that the bond portion has gone up, so things are not as bad as it seems.

[mudLark]

This and that...

[big easy]

This and that...

Thanks, I read both articles from TD economics. Recession to last 2-3 qtrs in Canada and shave up to 7% off GDP. US a qtr longer and 1-2% deeper. Inflation predicted to be under 2% (no deflation) in both countries through 2010.

Much depends on central banks, which the articles imply are doing the right things so far.

[mudLark]

... and the other.

Mr. Quinn's overall thesis may be polemical but his premiss appears well researched and sound. More to the point, his essay predicts a fairly gloomy retirement picture for 70% of the US boomer cohort; which is perhaps another reason why, this time, it may well be different.

The bottom 30% will reach the age of 65 with net worth of less than $100,000. They will try to subsist in poverty, dependent upon social security and part time Wal-Mart jobs until they die peniless. The top 30% will retire to lives of luxury and leisure. The middle 40% will muddle through with social security payments the only thing keeping them from an old age in poverty.

The long recession now being predicted is likely going to mean that many boomers will be forced into [euphemism] early retirement [/euphemism]. They may be unable to find even those "part-time Wal-Mart jobs" needed to tide them through to a penniless death.

[mudLark]

Yesterday The Conference Board of Canada issued a report describing a near record fall in consumer confidence during October and November. The Conference Board also noted in this report that more than 50% of Canadians are now experiencing "debt overhang" ... with their liabilities exceeding their assets/income, and a large increase in the number of Canadians now living from paycheck to paycheck.

Today another report was issued describing that retail sales soared during September.

Also today, the OECD issued a report describing that Canada's economy is entering deep recession.

It seems that many cash-strapped Canadians still don't understand one of the fundamental reasons why it may be different this time. That putting off 'til tomorrow what you want to purchase today is quite probably a very good investment; because tomorrow it will very likely be cheaper and you will have less debt.

[mudLark]

There's "nicely cheap" and "spectacularly cheap". Jeremy Grantham believes the odds are 2 to 1 we may yet see "spectacularly cheap".

[mudLark]

It is time to prepare. America [and the world] needs to know what is coming. Some of these events are now unavoidable so being fore-warned and getting prepared is crucial.

[Nemo2]

It is time to prepare. America [and the world] needs to know what is coming. Some of these events are now unavoidable so being fore-warned and getting prepared is crucial.

Wow, this guy's more depressing than Leonard Cohen.

[WishingWealth]

One of the Youtube comments on a Cohen clip was:

"Leonard Cohen makes you feel happy to be miserable and depressed"

WW

[Jo Anne]

It is time to prepare. America [and the world] needs to know what is coming. Some of these events are now unavoidable so being fore-warned and getting prepared is crucial.

Wow, this guy's more depressing than Leonard Cohen.

Well, I certainly hope he's at least half right about oil. It's been rather disheartening to see my kids/grandkids move to Edmonton and then have oil prices go south.

[bubbalouie]

Wow, this guy's more depressing than Leonard Cohen

.


Why? He's telling you how to improve your finances.

[Nemo2]

Wow, this guy's more depressing than Leonard Cohen

.


Why? He's telling you how to improve your finances.

It's the other stuff:

This energy crisis will be very difficult to get through and will cause tremendous social and economic difficulty.

6. International conflicts over natural resources will hit the headlines during 2009-12. As governments across the globe seek to address the wants needs of their growing populations, there will be aggressive competition for the world's limited resources. Natural resources will be seen as strategic as well as economic. National and economic security for America will be a vital concern.

Which ties into an earlier discussion.