Clippings 2009

Recommended reading, economic debates, predictions and opinions.

Postby WishingWealth » 02Mar2009 22:02

Who’s Really Being Propped Up in the A.I.G. Bailout?
By Joe Nocera NYT: Blog.
http://executivesuite.blogs.nytimes.com ... g-bailout/

That's also what I (together with a multitude) have been dying to know.
How about paying 80%? or 50% or 25%? Or as many would hope, let AIG go down and pay 0%.

Don't worry (too much) we've had many recessions before we keep hearing too often.

...
The answer, as I understand it, is that A.I.G. views these as “confidential transactions,” and the government (as per usual?) is going along with that rationale. One government official told me that if the federal government divulged the names of the counterparties it would amount to a violation of the Trade Secrets Act — unless the counterparties agreed to it, which they never will.

Pretty unsatisfying, isn’t it? Gobs of tax money is going to bail out unnamed companies — and yet we aren’t allowed to know who they are, and are supposed to take it all on faith. You know those awful cases you read about every once in a while where a child dies in a troubled home — and then the state health department won’t divulge any information out of “privacy concerns”? This strikes me as the financial equivalent of those cases. As excuses go, it sure is convenient.


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Postby WishingWealth » 02Mar2009 23:28

In the WSJ : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123604378798715285.html

That would be a good start.

Buyers Should Pay for Bond Ratings
A recent report by the Group of 30 (international financial experts led by Paul Volcker) recommended that regulators encourage the d
evelopment of payment models that "improve the alignment of incentives" and permit rating users to hold rating providers accountable. Similarly, Securities and Exchange Commission head Mary Schapiro recently called for an examination of " how the rating agencies are compensated, how they manage conflicts of interest, and what role they should play in our markets."

The insurance industry and its regulators can lead the way by implementing the only effective proposal: self-funded, independent buy-side ratings. Ratings, that is, that are paid for by the investors who use them.

Rating agencies' failures are not rooted in a lack of talent or insight, but rather in a fundamentally flawed business model. Those who issue the securities also pay for their ratings. This structure has created powerful incentives to bias ratings to keep debt securities' sellers satisfied and the rating fees flowing.
...


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Postby ghariton » 03Mar2009 01:59

WishingWealth wrote:That would be a good start.


Yes indeed. Now let's apply the same reasoning to auditors.

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Postby Taggart » 05Mar2009 07:05

How to really diversify your portfolio

Jonathan Chevreau, Financial Post

Published: Thursday, March 05, 2009

Abitter lesson of the global stock-market rout is that diversifying equity exposure by geography or sector provides little portfolio protection for investors. It appears Ottawa's decision to eliminate the 30% foreign content limit four years ago has proved to be a pyrrhic victory at best.

At the behest of mutual fund companies, financial advisors urged clients to get over their "home country bias" and "go global."

With three-quarters of the Canadian stock market concentrated in three narrow sectors (energy, materials and financials), they extolled the safety of diversification by broadening their equity exposure to include the United States, Europe and various exotic emerging markets.

Then came September, 2008. The equity carnage has been global, and self-directed RRSP investors who went global found they had instead "self-wrecked" their RRSPs.

=======================

Personally I won't be following the suggestions in the article, but this is one of those times, where I think just staying the last couple of years in all Canadian equities would have been the luckiest move in an RRSP. I say lucky and not wisest, because I don't think there would be too many Japanese investors with a "home only" bias who would be happy with their portfolios after a stockmarket downturn over there lasting twenty years now, and still no sign of any turnaround.
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Postby Taggart » 06Mar2009 07:04

The New York Times

By HIROKO TABUCHI
Published: March 5, 2009

Japan’s Slump Tests Faith in the Resilience of Stocks

TOKYO — When Japan’s stock market took a nose dive in 1990, analysts told Shizuko Kitamura to take the long view, just invest consistently and stoically and wait for share prices to recover.

Almost two decades later, she is still waiting.
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Postby Taggart » 06Mar2009 15:09

Stimulus: A History of Folly

James K. Glassman

March 2009
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Postby Bylo Selhi » 06Mar2009 15:24

Taggart wrote:Stimulus: A History of Folly

James K. Glassman

March 2009

Dow 36,000

James K. Glassman

1999

:shock: :shock:
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Postby WishingWealth » 06Mar2009 17:03

I never knew Keynes had such humor:
From the Commentarymagazine article.
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/viewa ... olly-14953

...
If the Treasury were to fill old bottles with bank notes, bury them at suitable depths in disused coal mines which are then filled to the surface with town rubbish and leave it to private enterprise on well-tried principles of laissez-faire to dig the notes up again, . . . there need be no more unemployment and with the help of the repercussions, the real income of the community would probably become a good deal larger than it is.
...


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Postby Taggart » 06Mar2009 19:42

I'm with Norm on this one. Had a bid on a Canadian stock today, but didn't take it. Perhaps next week.

----------------------------------

Canadian Business

Investing: The case for optimism

Investors are frightened, which is why now is the best time to buy stocks.

By Norm Rothery
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Postby Taggart » 07Mar2009 04:57

Barron's

FRIDAY, MARCH 6, 2009

Dispelling Myths About Stocks in the 1930s

By MARK HULBERT

The Depression wasn't as bad for stocks as many think. That could bode well for the future.
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Postby Taggart » 07Mar2009 05:52

Missed this one.

=================

The New York Times

Can Talk of a Depression Lead to One?

By ROBERT J. SHILLER
Published: February 21, 2009
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Postby Peculiar_Investor » 07Mar2009 16:14

Another from Barron's.

Where Pricing Anomalies Abound, Credit-default-swap traders may need a shorter leash.

An interesting read on what's happening in the CDS market and some of it's flaws.
A Merrill Lynch analyst Friday noted it was more costly to protect oneself from the possibility of a default by Berkshire Hathaway (ticker: BRKA) than one by Vietnam. And General Electric (GE) CDS prices outstripped those of Russia -- a country that a dozen years ago actually did default on its foreign debt.
"Benign neglect is, for most investors, the secret to long-term success in investing." Charles D. Ellis in Winning the Loser's Game
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Postby Taggart » 07Mar2009 19:54

Financial Times (UK)

Don’t blame shareholders for the crisis

By Anthony Bolton

Published: March 6 2009 17:30

Anthony Bolton is president, investment, at Fidelity International. Under his management, the Fidelity Special Situations fund was the top performer in its sector from its launch in 1979 until he stepped down at the end of 2007. He now has a full-time role mentoring Fidelity’s younger fund managers and overseeing Fidelity’s investment process.
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Postby Taggart » 08Mar2009 08:14

Note: Copy and paste the title into Google news and you'll be able to read the complete article.

------------------------------

Financial Times

Insight: The flight of the long run

By Peter L. Bernstein

Published: February 25 2009

The “long run” used to be one of the most popular topics among investors, particularly institutional investors. In recent months, discussion of the long run has disappeared from view.

Indeed, the possibility the long run has run away is one of the few pieces of good news I have been able to find in the financial and economic turmoil of recent months.
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Postby ghariton » 08Mar2009 13:29

Taggart wrote:Financial Times (UK)

Don’t blame shareholders for the crisis

By Anthony Bolton


Large institutional shareholder loudly proclaims that the crisis was not the sharehlders' fault. They could not be expected to do due diligence. No, it was all the fault of the regulators.

What was Mr. Bolton collecting his fees for? Throwing darts?

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Postby WishingWealth » 08Mar2009 17:23

GHARITON: "They could not be expected to do due diligence. No, it was all the fault of the regulators. "

I guess you were busy, hence the hurried comment.

We've had this discussion before and at some point joked that from now on we may need a rating system for rating agencies; and why not a triple layer.

A shareholder is you and me and thousand of others either on their own or regrouped in MF.
Do you really believe that laypeople should be lining up in front of the CFO's door to check if such and such hedge is sound?
That would be like auditing the auditors. And again, do we need 3 layers of auditors, just in case the first layer is too cozy with the audited?

Is that what you have in mind?
An easy answer is 'if you can't handle the heat get out/stay out of the kitchen'. But that would be just that, an easy answer.

I don't believe that the present crisis will cure man of his appetite for risk - it's too ingrained - but a few more like that and we'll be living in a world where everyone is a T-Bills or RRB investor. OTOH, this may be the cure to over consumption/over production.

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Postby Taggart » 08Mar2009 18:01

WishingWealth wrote:I don't believe that the present crisis will cure man of his appetite for risk - it's too ingrained - but a few more like that and we'll be living in a world where everyone is a T-Bills or RRB investor.
WW


WishingWealth:

Isn't that what Zvi Bodie suggested in 2003 with his book "Worry-Free Investing"? Being American it was of course TIPS in place of RRB's.
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Postby WishingWealth » 08Mar2009 18:08

Thanks Taggart, I'll have a quick read of the reviews/comments.

I was alluding more to a society or 'coupon clippers', GIC hoppers for the rate du jour etc..

How would such a society look like from a growth* POV?

ad absurdumly yours

WW

* I sense a Tidal riposte: And what would be wrong with that?
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Postby ghariton » 08Mar2009 18:17

WishingWealth wrote:A shareholder is you and me and thousand of others either on their own or regrouped in MF.
Do you really believe that laypeople should be lining up in front of the CFO's door to check if such and such hedge is sound?


From the article:

Anthony Bolton is president, investment, at Fidelity International.


So I don't think the standards for you and me should be the same as for Mr. Bolton. And indeed, although the article doesn't say, I suspect that Mr. Bolton is paid large sums of money for his financial acumen. If so, I don't think Mr. Bolton can shift the blame from himself to the regulators quite so easily.

Indeed, I would hold Mr. Bolton to a higher level of duty than regulatory staff, in part because he is paid so much more than they are. And if he is not responsible for due diligence and so on, just exactly what value does he add?

And in future will we get full disclosure from actively managed funds: WARNING: The management of this fund takes no responsibility (for anything)?

In itself, having a well-paid professional evade responsibility when things go wrong is nothing new. But this is an example of a wider problem that I have been posting about here, off and on.

(1) I take it as given that regulation is not sufficient to keep corporations honest. Examples abound. It is just not feasible to hire enough highly competent regulatory staff to stay on top of all these corporations. And even when regulators do recognize problems and want to act, often they are stopped by politicians, who have been heavily lobbied by the industries in question.

Anecdotes are not proof, but they can help understanding. So I offer attempts in the 1990s by the accounting profession to force companies to show options granted to emplyees as an expense when granted. The move was defeated by Congress, led by (Democratic) Senator Lieberman, threatening to emasculate (cut funding) the various bodies if they went through with it.

(2) Okay, so regulators can help. But they are far from a complete solution. So what other controls might we have on corporate management? Well, there are Boards of Directors. And indeed the main thrust of Sarbanes-Oxley was to strengthen the Boards and hand them the tools to better control management.

But that failed. As a rule, Boards are captured by management, and it looks increasingly as if reform is bound to fail. (See the excellent book by Jonathan Macey.) Boards will not solve our problem.

(3) Who else? Well, shareholders have the right motivation. But there is a free rider problem. As you point out, it is just not worth the cost and effort for small shareholders to do any level of due diligence, since each would incur the entire cost of the due diligence, but receive only a tiny fraction of the benefits.

For a time, my hopes were for large institutional investors. For them (or their clients), the benefits of due diligence would be large enough to justify the costs. But alas! this is proving to be a false hope. Working closely with some institutioal ionvestors, I was appalled at the lack of expertise. And now Mr. Bolton confirms that they don't even try.

(4) Independent financial analysts? Independent rating agencies? Very funny. :cry:

So what's left? We can take the same attitude as investors in third-world countries. Yes, management will steal us blind. But it's the only game in town.

Or we can adopt your approach:

we'll be living in a world where everyone is a T-Bills or RRB investor. OTOH, this may be the cure to over consumption/over production.


Over the years, I have been edging over to this position, myself. Karl Marx was right -- capitalism carries within it the seeds of its own destruction. Only it ain't the owners of capital who will do it to us -- it's the managers.

That would be like auditing the auditors. And again, do we need 3 layers of auditors, just in case the first layer is too cozy with the audited?


I have been in situations with three layers -- when I was helping regulate the telephone companies. First, there were the telcos' internal auditors, Then there were the external auditors, who in large part checked the first set. Then we had CRTC auditors who checked the previous two, aqnd went into molre depth in certain areas of regulatory interest. (I had responsibility for this last audit.) I think that's when I first started losing faith in audits.

As you say, we've danced around this maypole a few times already. Having been involved in regulation, on and off, for forty years now, I think that it can stop only the most flagrant and obvious abuses. A smart manager can run rings around a regulator. We need a better answer.

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Postby Taggart » 09Mar2009 05:38

ghariton wrote:So I don't think the standards for you and me should be the same as for Mr. Bolton. And indeed, although the article doesn't say, I suspect that Mr. Bolton is paid large sums of money for his financial acumen. If so, I don't think Mr. Bolton can shift the blame from himself to the regulators quite so easily.

Indeed, I would hold Mr. Bolton to a higher level of duty than regulatory staff, in part because he is paid so much more than they are. And if he is not responsible for due diligence and so on, just exactly what value does he add?

And in future will we get full disclosure from actively managed funds: WARNING: The management of this fund takes no responsibility (for anything)?

George


The reason Bolton was paid large sums of money, was because before he retired from his duties, he was regarded as the best long term fund manager in Britain, and he had the record to prove it.
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Postby lilbit » 09Mar2009 14:22

Hi folks,
Found this, and thought it worth passing on:
What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving.
The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else.
When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that, my dear friend, is about the end of any nation.
You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.
Dr. Adrian Rogers
Good judgement comes from experience, which comes from bad judgement.
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Postby WishingWealth » 09Mar2009 21:20

For a couple of posters; fans of Stanley Fish: / NYT
http://fish.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/0 ... education/

Neoliberalism and Higher Education
I’ve been asking colleagues in several departments and disciplines whether they’ve ever come across the term “neoliberalism” and whether they know what it means. A small number acknowledged having heard the word; a very much smaller number ventured a tentative definition.

I was asking because I had been reading essays in which the adjective neoliberal was routinely invoked as an accusation, and I had only a sketchy notion of what was intended by it. When one of these essays cited my recent writings on higher education as a prime example of “neoliberal ideology” (Sophia McClennen, “Neoliberalism and the Crisis of Intellectual Engagement,” in Works and Days, volumes 26-27, 2008-2009), I thought I’d better learn more.
...


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Postby WishingWealth » 10Mar2009 14:00

In the NYT.

They Tried to Outsmart Wall Street
By DENNIS OVERBYE
Emanuel Derman expected to feel a letdown when he left particle physics for a job on Wall Street in 1985.

After all, for almost 20 years, as a graduate student at Columbia and a postdoctoral fellow at institutions like Oxford and the University of Colorado, he had been a spear carrier in the quest to unify the forces of nature and establish the elusive and Einsteinian “theory of everything,” hobnobbing with Nobel laureates and other distinguished thinkers. How could managing money compare?

But the letdown never happened. Instead he fell in love with a corner of finance that dealt with stock options.
...
Still others have opened an academic front, using complexity theory or artificial intelligence to better understand the behavior of humans in markets. In December the physics Web site arXiv.org, where physicists post their papers, added a section for papers on finance. Submissions on subjects like “the superstatistics of labor productivity” and “stochastic volatility models” have been streaming in.

Quants occupy a revealing niche in modern capitalism. They make a lot of money but not as much as the traders who tease them and treat them like geeks. Until recently they rarely made partner at places like Goldman Sachs. In some quarters they get blamed for the current breakdown — “All I can say is, beware of geeks bearing formulas,” Warren Buffett said on “The Charlie Rose Show” last fall. Even the quants tend to agree that what they do is not quite science.

As Dr. Derman put it in his book “My Life as a Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance,” “In physics there may one day be a Theory of Everything; in finance and the social sciences, you’re lucky if there is a useable theory of anything.”

Asked to compare her work to physics, one quant, who requested anonymity because her company had not given her permission to talk to reporters, termed the market “a wild beast” that cannot be controlled, and then added: “It’s not like building a bridge. If you’re right more than half the time you’re winning the game.” There are a thousand physicists on Wall Street, she estimated, and many, she said, talk nostalgically about science. “They sold their souls to the devil,” she said, adding, “I haven’t met many quants who said they were in finance because they were in love with finance.”
...



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Postby jonathan » 10Mar2009 14:35

Maybe we need to encourage those in gov to do some real work!
an interesting video (20 min. but well worth watching)

http://steadfastfinances.com/blog/2009/ ... he-future/
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Postby Bylo Selhi » 11Mar2009 10:12

This is your brain. This is your brain on money
From his perch as director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Laboratory for Financial Engineering, Andrew Lo has closely observed investor behaviour during the current crisis. So far, what he has seen confirms his view of how markets work. His Adaptive Markets Hypothesis seeks to bridge the divide between academics who believe in the rationality and efficiency of markets and the behaviourists who argue that psychology always prevails...

The way the hypothesis works is pretty simple. You start by recognizing that individuals have two components to their decision-making process. There's a rational component and an emotional component. Generally, when those two are properly balanced, you have what we observed as rational economic interactions [among investors].
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