Quebec wrote:Peculiar_Investor wrote:
Unfortunately it has a habit of staying just outside my valuation metrics, so I'm not yet a share owner
Would you care to share what your valuation metrics are? I've outlined my simple entry price calculation methods here (topic: "Entry prices for dividend growth stocks"; can't post link due to Newbie status) but got no reply...
Sure, I use a homegrown combination of Ben Graham's equation, see
http://www.fool.com/portfolios/rulemake ... 011031.htm and the
Canadian Shareowner Assocation's Stock Study Guide (which is actually based on the
National Association of Investors Corp. (NAIC) Stock Study Guide).
Boiled down to essentials, I'm looking for companies that have a 5+ year history of growing Revenues and Sales on a consistent basis. My analysis spreadsheet uses a forecast of future EPS growth and expected P/E to forecast an upside price 5 years out. I'm looking for companies that can be expected, based on my model, to give me a annualized return in the mid teens (dividends included). As a cross check, I sometimes perform Discounted Cash Flow analysis to confirm my analysis.
In the specific case of Leon's, Revenue Growth over the past 10 years has been about 7.4% and EPS growth has been slightly higher. The average P/E ratio has been in the neighbourhood of 14x. Plugging in my current view of their numbers, I foresee a annualized return of about 11%, and a margin of safety of slightly under 60%, thus outside my valuation metrics.
I'm not always true to my model as you will find if you look at some of the stocks I've bought. Some companies and industries do not lend themselves to this type of valuation techniques.
"Benign neglect is, for most investors, the secret to long-term success in investing." Charles D. Ellis in Winning the Loser's Game