Gain/Loss Ratio

Remember when we talked about Drawdown?

>No!
We looked at the maximum stock price over the past umpteen years and compared it to the most recent price to see ...

>To see how much we would have lost. Yes, I remember now.
Well, that was a negative look at the past, so now we ...

>We take a positive look, right?
Yes. We now look at the minimum stock price over the past umpteen years and compare it to the most recent price to see ...

>To see how much we would have gained!
Stop interrupting!
If Max is the maximum and Min is the minimum price over the past umpteen years, and P is the current price, we look at:
LOSS = 1 - P / Max
and
GAIN = P / Min - 1
For example, if the price dropped from a maximum of $50 to the current price of $30, then LOSS = 1- 30/50 = 0.4 or a loss of 40%.
If, over the same time period, the price increased from a minimum of $20 to the current price of $30, then GAIN = 30/20 - 1 = 0.5 or a gain of 50%.

>I'll take the gain!
Pay attention.
There's a spreadsheet that looks at the daily prices over a 5-year period. It looks like this:

>I take it you just click on the picture to download the spreadsheet?
Yes, as usual. A measure of how good or bad the stock has been is the Ratio: Average Gain/Average Loss.

G/L Ratio = Average[P / Min - 1] / Average[1 - P / Max]

>And if that's a big number, you buy the stock, right?
Of course! Everybody knows the future is a replica of the past!

Of course, you might also want to use this.

Here are a few G/L ratios (for the period June/03 to June/08):
DOW
7.0
Nasdaq
6.2
MSFT
3.2
GE
5.6
XOM
21.8
WMT
0.8
PFE
0.7
VZ
2.8
JNJ
5.9
C
1.7
KO
2.6
MRK
2.1
IBM
2.8
TSX
19.0
Brazil
30.4
Japan
6.7
U.K.
11.9
Australia
17.3
Shanghai
6.2
>Guess I'll buy the XOM.
Exxon-Mobil? Go right ahead ...